Oil - US Crude:

The oil market has continued to trade lower as the outlook for global oil demand growth comes under pressure. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates next month after a deterioration in the labour market saw the unemployment rate rise unexpectedly to 4.3% in July. Yesterday, minutes of the July Fed meeting teed up September for a 25 basis point (bps) cut but markets still price in a 30% chance of a 50 bps cut first up. While, risk assets like the S&P 500 and the Australian dollar have fully recovered from the early August panic and even built on those gains, oil continues to trade lower.

Retail trading figures show an overwhelming . Long positions have grown by 10.62% since yesterday and 37.49% from last week. Short positions have declined by 14.59% since yesterday and 38.38% from last week. Adopting a contrarian stance on market sentiment combined with the heavy bias towards long positions, Oil - US Crude prices may decline further.

The increase in long positions and decrease in short positions over both daily and weekly periods adds to the bearish contrarian outlook on Oil - US Crude.

Richard Snow

AUD/USD:

Retail trading statistics indicate . Compared to yesterday, there's a slight 0.57% increase in long positions, but a significant 31.47% decrease from last week. Short positions have risen by 5.45% since yesterday and jumped 73.65% from last week. A contrarian approach typically counters popular sentiment, so the predominance of short positions suggests AUD/USD may trend upward.

The intensification of short positions both daily and weekly reinforces a bullish outlook on AUD/ USD based on contrarian analysis.

Richard Snow

Germany 40 (DAX):

Trading data reveals . Long positions have decreased by 10.89% since yesterday and 33.98% from last week. Short positions have increased by 4.67% since yesterday and 23.61% from last week. When adopting a contrarian approach to market sentiment, combined with the prevalence of short positions, Germany 40 prices may rise further.

The growing short interest over both daily and weekly timeframes strengthens a bullish contrarian perspective on Germany 40 .

Richard Snow